Illusion of predictability #1

A study I recently conducted with Robin Hogarth has been featured in various blogs, including Harvard Business Review and Reuters.

They also involve some very insightful discussions.

Here they are:

Harvard Business Review – Blog by Justin Fox

Reuters – Blog by Felix Salmon

 

3 thoughts on “Illusion of predictability #1

  1. Good study and exciting comments :) How would you rate Delphi Technique for economic/econometric predictability ?

    1. Thank you for the comment and the question.

      In our study we show that the experts are having a hard time understanding the problem due to its presentation mode. This means that in this particular case, even if Delphi method is applied appropriately, the experts would base their predictions on wrong perceptions and final predictions might not be accurate.

      I think one of the prerequisites for a successful application of Delphi method would be a good understanding of the problem.

      I am not familiar with the track record of Delphi method in making predictions in various situations. But, one of the commentators to the study featured in blogs, Prof. Scott Armstrong, has devised a Delphi method and it is there for anyone who wants to implement it.

      Here is the link:
      http://armstrong.wharton.upenn.edu/delphi2/

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